Looking South


Week of 14 Sept 2008)




While everyone is looking at Georgia, the Russians, Chinese and even Iranians have been extremely busy in Mexico and in other Latin Nations. One of the most dangerous alliances is now forming with Narco groups south of the border. The alliance is strengthening and has gone beyond the simple passing of drugs, cash and weapons to and some serious training that could only be used against the US with the Government of Mexico being the obvious first step. While the US has been playing Geopolitical bully in far off places in the world, we have not taken adequate care of our southern border and the serious challenge narco-gangs pose to America. This is a very serious problem and one that I have warned about for years now, that being a 1000 mile border that is largely unguarded, where terrorists of every stripe can and have entered. Our policy makers weak response to this threat has emboldened the Narco-gangs to seek out assistance from those who have the same interest as they do; neutralizing the government of Mexico and setting up a serious challenge to US geopolitical security using well armed, well trained Narco/Islamic-terrorists who will have the clandestine support of major geopolitical actors. But the threat goes beyond dope and terrorism.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recently blasted the United States for sending humanitarian aid to Georgia on board armed naval ships and promised a "response" (www.government.ru, September 2). President Dmitry Medvedev announced last Saturday that "Russia is a nation to be reckoned with" and added, "It [would be] interesting how those, who are rearming Georgia under the flag of humanitarian aid... would feel if we were now to send humanitarian aid using our navy to the countries of the Caribbean Sea, which recently suffered from a destructive hurricane" (RIA-Novosti, September 6).

Russian leaders want to send a clear and immediate response to what is seen in Moscow as a Western challenge in the Black Sea, but it will take time for the ships to take to sea and reach Venezuela in November. In an apparent attempt to speed up the "response" Putin had promised, two supersonic Tu-160 strategic bombers, known in the West as Blackjacks, arrived in Venezuela on Wednesday for "training flights" after a 13-hour flight from the Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast on the Volga River. The planes arrived at the El Libertador airbase in the northern town of Aragua. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the bombers will stay in Venezuela "several days" and return home (ITAR-TASS, September 10). Chavez has announced that he hopes to pilot one of the Tu-160s while they are visiting (AFP, September 10). - Jamestown Foundation (Eurasia daily Monitor #174)

Russia has already been very busy south of our border, but mostly with perfectly legal business relationships. One would be very surprised to find out just how much south American wine sold here in the US is really owned, at least partially by Russians. The Chinese as well have also been quite busy. Now a new element has moved rapidly and unmistakalby into the region. Islamic terrorists who have national backing from the Middle East. And yes, this is one time those in Washington are aware of the issue. This threat actually got some of our policy makers out of bed with their 21 year old interns (I wish I could say I was being facetious, but I am not). What they plan on doing about it, I surmise will probably be next to nothing as American political will to deal with the issue of illegal Mexican immigration and border security (with are inextricabely related to this problem). The terrorists know this as well as other state actors. This is America's achilles heel and America could not fix it even if it wanted to and any 'fix' would be laden with built in loopholes that would probably facilitate, rather than curb armed, illegal infiltration into the US, which has been going on for years, unchallenged.

Here is a major problem for the US on many fronts and one that policy 'experts' in the beltway will not be able to properly identify and keep their jobs after having done so. The problem can be seen in the shift south of the border in places like Bolivia, Venezuela and Ecuador where popular movements have replaced US puppet regimes. While each has had slightly different reasons for coming to power, the one common denominator is this, they are all essentially anti-American imperialism. None have a real problem with traditional America (Washington, Jefferson, the US constitution etc) but with the morphed Global contaminant version of Neo-liberal capitalism, headed by the US, its banks and oil conglomerates that have impoverished the people of these nations for decades and destroyed a large portion of the Rain forests and left a scourge of pollution and a seething anger in their wake. These nations may be most careful of others who come knocking on their door for improved ties, but our behavior in their backyard is a strong motivator to improve them and perhaps one day, allow them to set up permanent military bases in their nations to counter US influence in the region. The Russians in particular have every reason to do so. Look what we have done to them in Georgia and are trying to do with Ukraine. The Russians will not overstep themselves but bring to the table credible defense against US aggression, imperialism and the technological know-how in the oil services industry that these nations can use.

But is the specter of Islamic-terror and well heeled and extremely violent narco-gangs that are giving policy makers pause. They are, as the example of Mexico clearly demonstrating right before out eyes, a very serious threat to the nation state and its ability to enforce laws. Failure to deal with this threat now (as in yesterday) will lead to the exact same train of events heading here to he US where already the
corruption of US law Enforcement (local and Federal) are taking a toll on our enforcement efforts.

I know this sounds un-patriotic. It isn't. It is just that the criminal enterprise that has hijacked America and her foreign policy does not represent the America I respected. What we have now is something that is feared and loathed the world over because of what we have done and are doing around the world. I want to see our once great nation change and sadly, know that the only change coming after November '08 will be for the worse.









Bolivia - WW

I do not know if you have been following events in Bolivia but I have, at least somewhat. The situation is pretty dire. What is happening, it can be boiled down to is this. US backed elements attempted a coup against Morales who has won elections and is enormously popular in his nation. The rich landowners do not want the kinds of reforms he is pushing and have found some state governors who have rebelled against his perfectly legal and popular acts. One governor may be charged with genocide for machine gunning peasants. Nice guys... the kind of folks the US has consistently dealt with for decades; devils and demons that take human form. The Army now patrols the streets of the Capital of the state of Pando (Cobija). The issue boils down to wealth. The Rich want it all and Morales is trying to see to it that the Revenues from energy goes not only to the fat cats but that the poor of his nation share in the wealth. It is a classic class struggle.



Government officials are meeting Mario Cossio, the governor of Tarija region, to try to ease tension in energy-rich eastern areas held by the opposition.

The talks come after 30 people were killed in the region of Pando.

The crisis centres on Mr Morales' decision to hold a referendum on a new constitution in December.

The president says he wants to re-distribute Bolivia's wealth and give a greater voice to the large indigenous community.

Opposition leaders oppose the plan and demand greater autonomy as well as more control over revenues of natural gas in their areas. - BBC

Morales has received the support of South America's leaders, not least of which is Chavez who expelled the US ambassador coinciding with a similar action by Bolivia's government. While it is easy to dismiss Chavez' actions as more grandstanding, the reality is probably more in line with the rhetoric. The US is probably aiding and funding the coup so that they can install a puppet regime in Bolivia and seize the Natural gas resources for US conglomerates. That statement is probably a medium-sized oversimplification, but it is more probably as close to the truth as we will get unless Chavez or Morales decide to provide some real evidence to the public.



Chavez said the measure was in defense of democracy and the revolution in our brother country, and that both countries, Venezuela and Bolivia are victims of coup plotting and destabilising actions 'made in the USA'.

Venezuela and Bolivia are at the forefront of a continental-wide rebellion against neoliberalism and US domination. -
Green Left

The crisis has led to severe gas shortages in Brazil as the FT reports,

Brazil yesterday faced severe shortages of natural gas after violent protests in Bolivia caused the temporary closure of a pipeline that supplies about a quarter of Brazil's daily needs.

At least three people died in Bolivia during yesterday's violent clashes between pro- and anti-government demonstrators.

Residents of the more developed eastern lowlands have been demanding autonomy from the government in La Paz in protests that have escalated since last year. -
FT
___


Morales won a landslide victory in an August recall vote, yet many of his strongest opponents including in the energy-rich lowland states also maintained control. Differences over Morales' plans for wealth distribution through energy reforms and his government's intentions of holding a referendum on a new constitution mark a deepening rift that led to violence last week. Leopoldo Fernandez, governor of the remote Pando department, blamed the Morales administration for the violence while the government in turn accused Fernandez of hiring Peruvian and Brazilian mercenaries. Meanwhile, attacks on a natural gas pipeline in Tarija state affected the flow of gas shipments to neighboring Brazil and could cost approximately $100 million in damage. -
America's Society

The political dimension is rather tricky and a public speech about 'support' for Morales is very different from the real thing. Lula's support for Morales was a little late. Perhaps he was waiting for instructions from 'El Norte' before deciding on a public face. It should not go noticed that the atrocities that took place in Pando were right on the Brazilian border.

My guess (just a hunch) is that some of these governments in South America have covertly assisted in the coup or given aid and comfort to the US as they went to work in Bolivia to bring down Morales in exchange for a 'precentage' in future gas revenues once the nation was firmly under US dominance. Now they want to put a public face of their 'support' for Morales while the US works on new and better ways to destabilize Bolivia and get leadership that will further oppress the poor and rob Bolivia of her natural gas. Once again, that is just a guess but I do not think I am far off the mark.





Organized Crime Takes Control Of Parts Of Mexico - KC.com

"Don't go to Aguililla or to Tepalcatepec or to Coalcoman!" is the warning Victor Serrato, president of the State Commission on Human Rights in Morelia gives visitors. There is a risk of abduction, mistreatment or worse, he said.

Paracuaro, which human-rights experts considered a "safe" town, turned out not to be. Not long after this reporter and a photographer sat down at a restaurant to interview a local resident about drug violence, two police officers arrived and sat down - only to rush off when they spotted the visitors. We took the hint and quickly left town.

Gruesome gangland-style murders and targeted assassinations of law enforcement officers have claimed headlines in what Mexicans now refer to as war.

The chilling reality of Mexico is the mounting evidence that organized crime has become the de facto power in parts of the country, and local authorities can no longer protect citizens and impart justice.
(end excerpt)

This is the nightmare scenario when Criminal power overtakes state power. An interesting background article can be found here.

The US army War Collage summed it up like this.

Another kind of war within the context of a 'clash of civilizations' is being waged in various parts of the Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere around the world. Some of the main protagonists are those who have come to be designated as first-, second-, and third-generation street gangs, as well as their various possible allies such as traditional Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs). In this new type of war, national security and sovereignty of affected countries is being impinged every day, and gangs, illicit commercial motives are, in fact, becoming an ominous political agenda.

Rather than trying to depose a government with a major stroke (golpe or coup) or in a prolonged revolutionary war, as some insurgents have done, gangs and their allies (the gang phenomenon) more subtly take control of territory and people one street or neighborhood at a time (coup d' street) or one individual, business, or government office at a time. Thus, whether a gang is specifically a criminal or insurgent type organization is irrelevant. Its putative objective is to neutralize, control, or depose governments to ensure self-determined (nondemocratic) ends. This objective defines insurgency, a serious political agenda, and a clash regarding the authoritative allocation of values in a society. -
US Army War Collegee


By,

Mark S. Watson


http://www.markswatson.com