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The Coming Economic Depression

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November 2004 Update

New readers take note: This is a long running series of Articles that begins here

General Economic View

The government report on the 27^th of October showed consumer confidence had fallen significantly from 96.7 to 92.8 the lowest level in 7 months. ATA airlines filed for bankruptcy protection on the 26^th and as covered earlier the insurance industry is under investigation in several states for bribery. The SEC has finally decided to compel registration of the hedge fund Industry, whose impact on the global financial system is large enough that if the largest ones became insolvent, it could bring down the entire global financial system. On the positive side new home sales for September have been quite brisk rising 3.5% to 1.2 million units largely due to still extremely low mortgage rates. New orders for manufactured durable goods rose in September $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $195.7 billion according to the Department of Commerce. Even so, there is much to be depressed about looking at America's economic future. Large corporations such as EDS are still shipping thousands of jobs overseas and the jobs that are being created here at home pay significantly less than the ones being shipped away. Health care costs for most Americans continues to skyrocket along with the profits of the major oil companies, industries not coincidentally, that gave heavily to Bush. The M3 money supply continues its ascent and Americans are none the wiser.

Source: Federal Reserve.

Source: US Treasury (TIC Data)

As mentioned in the last update, as of June 2004 the total US external Debt stands at 7,625,201,000,000. According to the US Treasury. This is becoming a serious national problem. A cursory glance at the above chart shows that last year we saw roughly the same pattern in the fall, purchases tend to fall off and pick up towards the end of the year. This may again be the case this year, however our inability to get a working budget once again this year is causing some severe problems in the international debt markets. For those of you who may not be aware, the US government is operating on a continuing resolution, which can be found here. Will we be able to get more money to fund our profligate spending for FY 2005? Probably, but this is absolutely not a forgone conclusion and the amount of available capital that foreigners will be willing to put into the US economy is unknown. The dollars performance in the past few weeks has not been good.

The dollar fell against the euro for the ninth straight day (Oct 25), the longest losing streak since December 2000, on concern record oil prices will slow U.S. Growth. - Bloomberg

Yes, the dollar is having some problems and they are not likely to go away. Our trade deficits too are becoming a real problem and these two phenomenon are not unrelated. Yet how can America continue to stay afloat with these massive deficits and foreigners fleeing its bonds? What is rather strange now however is that even the mainstream media is beginning to talk about it. David Broder mentioned his concerns in an article in the Washington Post. The Post also did an article called A Matter of Missing Foreign Investors. The article was brief, but did give some perspective on this problem and it is a very real problem. Yet our Congress and Senate rushed through a corporate tax break bill for America's largest corporations to the tune of some 160 billion dollars, with lightening speed. Usually Congress waits until after the elections to screw Mr. And Mrs. America with these kinds of pork barrel bills. Our leaders have such contempt for Americans that they know they do not even bother having to wait. This bill just makes our fiscal gap (the difference between what the Government actually spends and what it takes in in taxes, even higher and increases the amount of money we must go out and borrow from foreigners, despite cries of it being 'fully funded'. Some of the provisions of the bill are rather odious.

• A special group of big Houston corporations that dropped American citizenship to hide their profits in overseas tax havens will be forgiven and allowed to take advantage of a special rate rather than being fined for tax evasion.

• Provides a special one year Tax Holiday for some of America's biggest corporations that have shipped millions of Jobs overseas.

• Increases the small business expensing limit from $25,000 to $100,000. One commentator reminds us that Congress makes “welfare mothers to count their thrift-shop dishes and winter coats toward their assets threshold to reduce the amount of federal contribution.”. If welfare mothers could buy the votes of our corrupt House and Senate then they too could get a tax break.

This bill is extremely bad economics insofar as it applies to our monstrous fiscal deficit. Granted, making America's corporations more competitive and lifting the load on small businesses is something that Congress should assist in today's global economic environment. Sadly, this bill does little to help them compete, instead it just provides ways to help them avoid paying taxes

"Unlike the Leave No Child Behind bill, this corporate boondoggle is fully funded," Rice says. "ExxonMobil, Home Depot, cruise ships, corn farmers, coffee roasters and makers of fishing tackle boxes, bows and arrows and ceiling fans all have special tax breaks specially tailored for their needs. And unlike the nation's children, who will be paying down our trillion-dollar deficit their whole lives, 60 percent of these corporations will likely continue to pay zero federal taxes, because their armies of lawyers will figure out how re-open newly closed loopholes that allegedly will pay for this bill." - Connie Rice

Where Does The Fed Stand?

As if Alan Greenspan's constant refrain on capitol hill of exhorting our Congress-critters to reign in spending were not enough, another Fed governor has chimed in and sharply criticized Congress' lack of discipline, stating that Congress was looking at the US treasury as a 'cookie jar'. Fed Governor Bies said, "The part of it that has gotten me so upset is that in this whole election debate, nobody's been talking about the spending side." She went on to say that "Everything has gotten loaded in. Money has gone into these appropriation bills that are funding everything under the sun." While revenues have increased by 5.5% for the year according to the Treasury, congressional spending has increased at a much more brisk pace, increasing at 6.2%.

Fed Governor McTeer stated “Over time, there's only one direction for the dollar to go -- lower.'' Obviously there is great alarm at the Fed over our fiscal profligacy and now the Fed governors are speaking out about it.

Securities have replaced bank lending in recent years as the primary means through which funds are invested internationally, and in the process, the share of U.S. securities owned by foreigners has grown markedly. For example, between December 1974 and June 2002, the proportion of the value of outstanding U.S. equities and long-term debt securities that was foreign-owned increased from about 5 percent to about 12 percent.1 During the same period, the value of these foreign holdings increased from $67 billion to almost $4 trillion. - Federal Reserve¹

The economic path the bi-partisan junta that now rules America has taken is akin to the captain of that now infamous US supertanker sailing through the beautiful Alaskan waters in a full oil taker headed for shallow waters as he continues to sip a once full bottle of whiskey. The damage to the economic landscape will forever change America once the rocks of fiscal insolvency pierce holes in the USS America. Even the so-called recovery is in danger. One of my favorite writers Dr. Kurt Richebächer states it all in once succinct paragraph;

“Renewed weakness in the U.S. economy has hardly come as a surprise to us. It is the inexorable outgrowth of an economic recovery that has been of highly dubious quality right from the start. The U.S. economy is plagued by an extraordinary array of growth-impairing imbalances: a record-high trade deficit, a record-high budget deficit, record-high household indebtedness, record-low national saving and asset price bubbles supporting record-high consumer spending.” - Kurt Richebächer

Source: Census Bureau

So far the trade deficit is on track to outpace last years record by 19%. These deficits are funded by borrowing. Consumers borrow against their houses and on credit cards to make purchases of goods made overseas, weather they be cars, big screen TV's the American consumer is relatively undaunted by the fiscal calamity that looms just over the horizon. While the US economy has lost about 2.7 million jobs under Bush's economic leadership the American people still largely support his policies. The next administration is going to have to make some very, very important choices in the days ahead. There will only be two really, but which choice is made is going to have enormous ramifications on every single American, whether they know it or not. In this respect alone this is probably the most important Presidential and House election in American History, with the possible exception of 1860. The two basic choices will be either to significantly raise taxes (or revamp the entire US tax system) or significantly reduce Federal spending and yes, Social Security will be on the table, no matter what the politicians may or may not have promised on the campaign trail.

It is important to recognize that even if most Americans haven't got a clue as to what kind of danger the US economy is in, foreign investors do. That is why the dollar is tanking on the world markets as we entered FY 2005 on October 1^st without a budget. A senior economic adviser for UBS warned that the US dollar could be heading for a severe fall of 20-30% over the next one to two years. This is largely due to America's gargantuan twin deficits which are already at a record 6% of GDP. Mr. Magnus predicts that the fiscal gap will widen to between 8 and 10% of GDP.

Some would hail such a devaluation, as it theoretically would assist US corporations to become more competitive. Yet as the specter of an ever falling dollar looms on the horizon, its decline in value frightens away foreign investors. Why? Who would knowingly put his money in a asset that is set to significantly decline in value? Answer: Asian Central Banks. Why? They need a strong Dollar to make the goods they sell to US consumers cheap. They have an interest, or at least have up until now, to keep the dollar strong. It keeps US goods out of their backyards and makes their good cheap to us. Will they pony up again this year? Probably, but they may not to the tune of some $450 billion. I think we should look for the possibility of 'offshore'² investing to find its way into the US treasury to fund any difference. We should remember though from a historical perspective that the US economic predicament is a relatively recent phenomenon as one economist lucidly comments

In 1980, America’s net international investment position -- the broadest measure of the accumulated claims that the US has on the rest of the world less those that the rest of the world has on the US -- stood at a surplus of $360 billion. By the end of 2003, that surplus had morphed into a deficit of -$2.4 trillion, or 24% of US GDP. - Stephen Roach

The world has essentially been on a dollar standard since at least the early 1970's but arguably long before that. This has assisted America's fiscal licentiousness. The dollar standard has also accelerated economic globalization and placed America firmly at the center of global economic activity especially from a monetary perspective. From a globalist perspective, that is those who believe with almost religious fervor that economic globalization should go forward no matter the short term or even long term consequences to the worlds ordinary people, the dollar has been a primary tool used to bring it all about. Yet the ultimate price that will have to be paid by the world at large and the American people in particular could cause a terrible backlash against these machinations and bring about many types of severe economic, political and social disruptions that will almost certainly include new wars. While it seems that technological breakthroughs have also assisted to some degree to make globalization in some disciplines less menacing, it is in the arena's of economics and global law enforcement that have caused the most outcry from the worlds non-elite population. Economic globalization may remain with us after the coming economic crisis has arrived. It is certain to have its quasi-religious proponents who will press forward, along with its royal priesthood who reside in the world's Central Banks as well as the major banking houses in around the globe. Yet this author believes that globalization will only continue when the brute force of the state literally forces it on an impoverished, frustrated and angry population who have been robbed of their retirements, savings jobs and are only left with the debts, the money from which came from the irresponsible monetary creation that transpired during the tenure of Sir Alan Greenspan.

How does America expect to pay for these gargantuan debts when there has been no meaningful hiring in America since Bush took office, when manufacturing is encouraged though GOP tax policy to set up shop overseas and the American consumer is saddled with debt?

Insurance Corruption

Source: The Insurance Information Institute

The states of New York, Connecticut and California have launched probes into bribery allegations at the worlds largest insurance brokers and organizations. Eliot Spitzer began this look into the shadier side of the insurance industry when he went after one of the most prominent families of the Insurance Industry, the Greenbergs. Spitzer's investigation caused the ouster of the CEO and Chairman of Marsh & McLennan, a major player in the insurance business. The probe not only looked at the bribery of insurance agents but also bid rigging, false bids as well falsification of contracts favoring insurers over clients. The investigation is also looking into threats made against those who resisted these activities. This investigation has also embroiled the the worlds largest insurance firm AIG who is run by another Greenberg, Marice 'Hank' Greenberg and his brother, Evan Greenberg who runs Ace. This is a sad chapter but it underscores serious problems in the industry. Indeed, Mr. Spitzer is going to look at other insurers as well ,especially those that are frequented by the 'average Joe' such as auto and homeowners insurance.

In Connecticut, the process has gone somewhat wider than Spitzer's has at the time of this writing as the AG there has sent out 35 subpoena's to insurers in the Health Care, Automotive and Benefit sectors of the industry. Investigations are also underway in Minnesota, Florida, Illinois and Massachusetts. This is a major scandal and could involve most major insurance companies. It is most unfortunate that it takes those at the state level to investigate what looks to shape up as major national problem. Yet it is my hope that the Federal government won't get involved in the prosecution phase of any criminal investigation because if they do, no one important will go to jail, especially if they gave heavily to the GOP. When asked if Federal regulations would help the situation in his home state of California, Insurance Commissioner John, Garamendi said, “That's just not the way to go with this,” he said. “The Feds have done zero, and I would expect them to do zero.”³

Needless to say all these charges, allegations and resignations have caused the value of the largest insurance companies to plummet.

Charts for other insurers were not dissimilar. It should be kept at the back of everyones mind that with record claims in the Insurance industry after the spate of Hurricanes, these investigations are welcome. Let us remember that these are only brokers that are under the spotlight. They are essentially only middle men for large clients. Hopefully some of the corruption can be worked out of the system as a whole and that could eventually help the average person. As the investigation moves forward, other large insurance conglomerates could be severely adversely affected by these charges.

Oil, China And The War On Terror

The War On Terror may not be dissuading terrorists from doing their evil, but it is significantly effecting the price of oil. Oil prices are hovering well about $50 a barrel and it seems that my earlier predictions of oil at $50 a barrel by the end of next year were far too conservative. Global growth forecasts have been revised downwards as a result of these record high prices. Morgan Stanley however believes that Oil will retreat somewhat from these highs. This is possible only if there are no further significant disruptions to the supply and distribution system. Strikes in Nigeria, and Norway; fires in Iraq, Mexico, California and Nigeria all have a negative effect not only on the system as a whole but also a more negative effect on the psychology of the markets as the world watches America's military stumble badly in Iraq. An oil shock to the global economy will effect the US in an extremely negative way and as we continue our global war (they used to be called World Wars), the risks of a significant disruption in a major oil producing nation is increased significantly.

However one significant factor that needs to be explained is China. China is another reason oil prices are high. China's own oil fields may soon peak in production while their thirst for oil is growing. While China and America may not be the mortal foes many right-wing columnists claim as they spin their tall tales to frighten suburban housewives into voting for the GOP, the two are not friends either. They have significant issues that divide them that are likely to show themselves in the months and years ahead. Some of the fault lines are real some of which are outlined below.

Dollar - Yuan – The Yuan is pegged to the US dollar presently and the US wants China to float its currency. China has hinted that this is eventually the way they will go they just have not stated how fast they will get there. Pegging its currency to the dollar was an excellent move for China because it took away a key policy tool that the US had in combating cheap Chinese goods. The US has been pressuring China to de-link the two and China is slowly moving in that direction. America's massive trade imbalances with China is of serious concern to the US who now must rely on China's Central Bank to purchase in T-bills in order to stay financially solvent. China has become the America's lender of last resort. China's total trade volume will reach 1.1 trillion US dollars in 2004 up 30 percent from the previous year. However this trade comes with a trade surplus (on The Chinese Side) of about 10 billion US dollars according to the Assistant Minister of Commerce Yi Xiaozhun. Presently, the two are in a rather symbiotic relationship, each dependent on the other for economic prosperity. However, as America's fiscal and trade imbalances continue to grow, tension is likely to develop between to two as to the best way to bring them under control. China will not be bullied and America is still unable to deal in fiscal realities thus, tension is likely to escalate as the months and years wear on.

Yet China has economic problems of its own, its CPI is over 5% and wholesale prices are running at over 6%. Its economy, in the opinion of many, is a classic bubble in many sectors and is likely to cool significantly in the months ahead. Indeed, after nine years they've raised the benchmark lending rate. Obviously they are concerned about inflation and an overheating economy.

Oil Consumption – The US and China are the number one and number two consumers of oil on the planet, respectively. As oil become more difficult to find, extract and transport due to peaking oil supplies, market manipulation, political instability and terrorism, its availability may become a point of contention between the two. China has been working on exploiting the resources but natural gas and oil in the South and East China Sea. This has caused a great deal of consternation with many of America's allies in the region. It is difficult to say with any degree of certainty how China, Japan and the other nations in the region will work out their problems in accessing and exploiting the resources in this region. As China's industries grow and the purchasing power of its citizens increase, its thirst for oil will quickly out pace demand the global markets can produce. Let is remember that oil prices are hovering well above $50 a barrel.

Source: EIA

Yet China is seeking alternative ways to fuel its energy hungry economy. In 2000 it announced plans for its energy sector that includes the development of thermal, nuclear, and hydroelectric power as well as traditional sources of oil, coal and natural gas. Interestingly they are also looking into;

• Geothermal

• Biomass

• Wind

• Tidal energy

• Other renewable sources

China recognizes the threat to its future prosperity and industrialization.

“Beijing recognizes the strategic implications of national reliance

on foreign energy sources and is attempting to lessen this reliance. China

is the world’s fifth largest petroleum producer but imported more than 18

percent of its petroleum consumption in 1999. It imported twice as

much oil in 2000 as it did in 1999, and 15 percent more in 2002 than in

2001. The demand for imported petroleum will continue increasing,

assuming continued economic growth, with imported oil contributing as

much as 40 percent of all petroleum requirements by 2010 and with as

much as 8 million barrels a day imported by China in 2020.”

- Oil for the lamps of China: McNair Paper #67

Reformation

Reforming Communism is like baking snowballs – Leszek Kolakowski

Can the Chinese system reform itself to meet these rather 'capitalistic' challenges? The reality is that much of the tremendous growth that has taken place has done so without communist 'central planning' and this has caused some anger on that part of some party officials. Yet it is this freedom that has produced so much prosperity up until now. The danger that China has now is that when its economy begins to stagnate and go into its post bubble phase, more conservative elements may seize the opportunity and attempt to control China's private economic mechanisms with an overabundance of 'central planning'. This danger also includes central government interference in the energy sector. That said, the specter of decentralization is not new to China. Lacking some of the rigidity that characterizes other communist nations, (old Soviet Union, Cuba) China recognized its unique challenges; including diverse regions, geography, cultures and enormous population and even as early as the 1960's (just before the cultural revolution) the Central government allowed local governments to invest in certain approved non-industrial sectors.

It remains to be seen exactly how China deals with an impending economic slowdown and how it will interact with other regional players and the US as it acquires oil to fuel its economy, but this author foresees much tension as we move rapidly towards peak oil and much higher energy prices across the board.

***

As America continues its attempt to begin World War III in a futile attempt (as some writes are beginning to say) to war its way out of debt via 'endless war for endless peace', its coalition is looking increasingly shaky. Any future military endeavor against another nation in its increasingly futile attempt to 'hunt terrorists' in nations such as Iran or Syria would be met with jeers not only form allies who have previously shunned any military assistance to Iraq but from allies as staunch as the UK. Recently MSNBC revealed in an article called 'The Creaky Coalition' that a senior British diplomat said 'never again' to a US led military intervention.

This is one reason this author does not feel another risky military endeavor is likely even if Bush is re-elected. The real threat is Saudi Arabia. The US will not let it fall into the hands of Islamic Fundamentalists and neither will the British. Any future near to medium term war in this authors opinion will be in Saudi Arabia or perhaps in Korea.

Closing Thoughts (Insights Into The Post Crash World)

There was a science fiction program on several years ago that had an episode where the main characters were sent far into the future and discovered how the world viewed the life they led and the struggles they made for a better future. They discovered that they had come to a world where there were 'good facts' and 'real facts'. Good facts were essentially spin that puts that best light on any situation. 'Real facts' were what is really going on. The characters found out that a war was being planned and that the memory of their peaceful activities as leaders of a great alliance had to be 'reinterpreted' or 'deconstructed' in order to get people to accept the war that was being planned by their successors. Today Americans are surrounded by 'good facts'. 'Good facts' are typified by things like BLS numbers on unemployment, US News reporting on our war in Iraq, which I can confidently say we are losing badly, but you would never know it if you watched TV news or read the major national newspapers. 'Good facts' are everywhere, nowhere is it discussed with any real seriousness that America does not have a budget, let me say that again in case you weren't paying attention, AMERICA DOES NOT HAVE A BUDGET. While Congress goes out and stumps for re-election, they cannot even do the work it takes to pass a budget. Yet Americans will go to the polls and vote them right back into office, they will probably vote themselves another pay raise as soon as they are sworn in. Why will American's vote them back in? Because they are basing their decisions on 'good facts' rather than 'real facts'. The 'real fact' is that America is heading towards a real, extremely painful fiscal bankruptcy. The 'real fact' is that America's leaders are constructing a national prison camp system of existence⁴ for the American people. In this system you will not be able to get on a plane without being screened or get a loan without extensive checks. You will not be able to get in your car without big brother knowing exactly where you went, how you got there, what you said in the car and what you did when you arrived. This new system will force you to give DNA samples to the Government which will be provided to corporate America to develop expensive products, conduct research and make genetically targeted bio-weapons against certain races of people. You will be forced to get inoculations by the government in huge federal contracting scams to keep drug companies profitable, using taxpayer dollars. Banking conglomerates will be able to hold your deposits for several days but take away any float time that once existed, thus banks can actually clear a deposit to your account but still NOT make the money available to you for several days, thus holding your wages in a fraudulent scheme. This could increase fees made though bounced checks, and late payments and to credit cards. You can see why the nations largest banks give heavily to the GOP as they approved the bill that went into effect on the 28^th. This aspect of 'Check 21' is not discussed in mainstream sources of news. It is filled with 'good facts' on how it will 'streamline' the banks and 'reduce processing time' and 'save the banks money'. Earlier this month Bank of America was fined some 284 million dollars for victimizing Social Security recipients. What exactly did the bank do? You will be hard pressed to find any mainstream source of news that covers the specifics of the banks crimes. Indeed, this story was almost universally ignored in the nations newsrooms. The story, as I understand it, is that the Bank took checks from Social Security recipients which were typified by the old and mentally disabled and if they had insufficient funds in the account, they would pay the largest check that the customer had written and then, let the other 10-20 checks bounce. This way they could make considerably more money on fees. This is illegal under California law when dealing with Social Security checks. Bank Of America should be ashamed to do this, instead they are going to appeal, believing it is their right to treat crippled old grandmothers and disabled veterans in such an unethical fashion, using Social Security checks to pad profits with overdraft fees and other charges. This banking system has been allowed to become so large and corrupt that it is going to take a massive crash of biblical proportions to get rid of this system of usury and fractional reserve banking that is at the heart of America's economic ills.

Finally in this 'brave new world'' that our elite is building, you will not be allowed to hold views that are unpopular. One day in the not too distant future, you will not be able to hold a job if you are a Christian and think homosexuality is a sin⁵ as pastors in Australia are in jail now over this and laws in Canada doing the same have already been enacted. These laws destroy free speech and religious liberty in favor of enforcing 'thought crime' and protecting sexual perversion. Soon, it is not inconceivable, that you will could be put in a terrorist 'detention center' (concentration camp) if you hold political, religious and social views that do not coincide with the Democratic or Republican parties cheap notions of 'political correctness'. You will see some of your neighbors 'disappear' never to be seen or heard from again, trapped in a 'legal limbo' that is now the law of the land thanks to the Patriot Act and more legislation that Congress is waiting to vote on after the election. People will be told 'good facts' that they are safer without their disappeared neighbors, while the 'real fact' of their whereabouts and real condition will not be known. Dear readers, I can tell you now, if you weren't aware of it that America's democracy has been stolen, (you should have figured that out after the 2000 election). America's rights have been stolen (you should have figured that our when the patriot act was passed). America's future has been stolen (you should have figured that our when you looked at our federal deficits). The money in America's treasury, social security trust fund, and retirement accounts have been stolen.

These issues go the the heart of the Coming Economic Depression in one very important point. A new order is being planned by our elite to change everything Americans hold dear. A tyranny (benevolent perhaps, but a tyranny nonetheless) is being planned for the post crash world. This is the elite's solution to our economic problems.

There will be no dissent in a post crash America.

No more blood for oil, we got our own battles to fight on our own soil
No more psychological warfare, to trick us to thinking that we ain't loyal
If we don't serve our own country, we're patronizing a hero
Look in his eyes its all lies
The stars and stripes, they've been swiped, washed out and wiped
And replaced with his own face, Mosh now or die
If I get sniped tonight you know why,
Cause I told you to fight. - Eminem

I do not like rap music, in fact I can't stand it. But one rap artist sums it all up pretty good in the above couple passages from his recent video. No dear readers, I have not gone 'militant' on you, I reject all forms of violence and the lifestyle that tends to epitomize the rap music culture. Certainly his video will be banned like the last one he did was by the Corporation that runs MTV, which funds Bush heavily. Interestingly Eminen had to go 'alternative' to get this one out by going to GNN. Why do I bring this up? Because Americans need to wake up and find out what is happening to America's youth and the seething, often righteous anger that young people feel. Why? Because they will be the ones taking care of us baby-boomers when we are decrepit, Alzheimer's-ridden, babbling old fogeys. I think their answer to us will be 'you left us with nothing but debts, environmental devastation, war and international hatred, why should we pay for your retirements, health care and shelter?' I can't really blame them because, as they say, 'what goes around, comes around'.

Yes indeed it does, sooner and harder than you think.

By,

Mark S. Watson

Great links

Prudent Bear's Credit Bubble Bulletin

Crashmaker – A Fantastic article of the fiscal realities that will bring about the greatest financial reorganization in human history.

The Larouche Movement. Many have foolishly mocked these people but everything they have predicted has and is coming to pass.

Crash News - A daily snippet of the real financial news

Depression TV - The depression will not be televised...

Preventing A Banking Crisis in The Future

Urban Survival

Peak Oil - One factor that is already beginning to weigh on the US economy in is the fact that oil production world wide is set to permanently decline in the near term. This paper deals with this issue.

Disclaimer: The above article is commentary and is not investment advice. The author is in no way connected to the wall street gang and therefore cannot dispense financial advise within the parameters set forth by Wall Street and the legal profession, nor will the author attempt to do so. This article is not investment advise nor is should it be construed as such. Please do not e-mail me asking for financial advise. I cannot and will not give it on any level.

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