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Home
 The
Coming Economic Depression
– August 2005 Update
This is the
latest update to a series. Earlier sections appear here.
Clueless
In America
From
the revaluation of the Chinese Currency to rather disturbing
news of capital outflows from the US the state of the global
economy is in a state of flux. The changes that we are seeing
are signs not of inherent strength of but of dangerous
imbalances that are causing geopolitical strain around the
planet. This months update will cover some these strains,
discuss new alliances forming to counteract US global economic
and military hegemony as well as reiterating the severe problems
underlying the engine of the global economic system, the US
economy.
Political
and Economic Shifting
China’s
move to revalue its currency is being heralded as a significant
first step to assisting the US deal with its gargantuan and
frankly un-repayable twin deficits. At the risk of sounding
repetitive, I stress that these deficits are the greatest threat
to the Global economy as their sheer size staggers the
imagination. For those wanting an excellent update on the size
of he US deficits one can click over to Jim
Puplava’s site and
listen to the interview for 23 July. The US has been playing
what can only be described as the blame game. It has allowed its
most venerable corporations and defense contractors to set up
shop in China sell inexpensive goods to a US consumer that can
only afford those goods by going into debt. Now the US wants to
blame China for our excesses and inane economic policies. This
is one of the reasons why the Chinese have been so reluctant to
revalue their currency, there is nothing in it for them. They
know how western capitalists work and know that floating
currencies is and has been a tool in the past to rob economic
strength from developing nations. Thus, China acted wisely long
ago and pegged their currency to the reserve currency of the
world. This, in their view prevented the usual type of currency
manipulation that could destroy or at least undermine their
economic miracle. It has worked beyond their wildest dreams.
China has finally relented but not because they see this move as
ultimately in their interest, but because they cannot afford a
serious trade war with the US at this time. Yet
the Chinese have a card up their sleeve that they have not seen
fit to play it yet. They may never play it because it would
cause havoc on a global scale. That card is selling US
treasuries on the open market en masse thus causing a severe
economic crisis. Nevertheless the threat is there and it is real
and the Chinese could play it if they really believed that it
was in their long term interest to do so.
China
is now however, beginning to flex its muscles. This is evidenced
by the recent declaration of the declaration of the
Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO)
a group of nations which has several central Asian States as its
members. This group of nations is trying to fill a void that the
OSCE has left and is now apparently acting as a counterweight to
US
power and influence in the region.
This organization was written about in the excellent Asia
Times internet newspaper by a Russian author named Sergei
Blagov in
this article back
in 2001. This organization has the potential of becoming an
extremely important regional player and one that the US cannot
ignore. It is viewed by may observers as a vehicle for China to
advance its foreign policy. This is only partially true but does
come to a very instructive conclusion, that being it is not
under US control and will often and perhaps consistently move
counter to US policy. The recent declaration that came out of
SCO is that the US military and its bases should depart the
region. While the members of SCO may have many interests that
are at variance with one another this is one occasion where they
spoke clearly and said in essence that the continued presence of
the US military in this part of the world was unwelcome and
invited the US to withdraw. While the primary motivators of this
move are certainly Russia and China, the reality is that the
other smaller Former Soviet Republics are also restive and the
toppling of the government in Kyrgyzstan has had a serious
effect on the regions leaders as to both the role the US may
have played directly in instigating the coup and indirectly by
its mere presence in the region.
“There
should be no place for interference in the internal affairs of
sovereign states," President Nursultan Nazarbayev of
Kazakhstan.
These
statements echo Russian concerns that the US may be deliberately
stirring up internal dissent in the smaller republics to further
its own policy ends.
Russia,
China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are
full members of SCO, while Mongolia, Pakistan, India and Iran
have observer status(green).
This
important counterbalance in the region effects the US in both
economic and geopolitical ways. Donald Rumsfeld has been
compelled to, as one article put it, 'stop
erosion of US strategic position in Central Asia'.
This geopolitical drama is not completely unrelated to our
current economic dilemma. There is an increasing shift away from
the US in this, the most populated part of the world and the
Bush administration cannot ignore it. This debate is now almost
certainly going to be settled by who is able to give the most
aid and assurances of economic cooperation to these smaller
republics. Moscow has been able to influence these states using
its energy reserves as a carrot by providing these resources at
a discount. China as well seeks to move and obtain as many of
the regions resources for itself. China is becoming a truly
energy hungry nation and it needs increasing amounts of energy
to feed its economic miracle. The rule of the jungle and of
geopolitics is and always has been 'possession is 9/10's of the
law' and they want to posses or at least have unfettered access
to more of the energy reserves in the region. eventually strains
between China and Russia are sure to develop. Before the recent
SCO summit Putin and the Uzbek President signed an agreement to
develop the natural gas deposits In Uzbekistan. Russia's
politically connected Lukoil will have a 90% stake in the
project. But there appears to be more that enough room for
cooperation between China and Russia on a broad range of issues.
China is buying a significant amount of Russian Military
hardware and each has an interest in countering US moves in the
region.
While
some, such as former Secretary of State Brezinski has stated
that, 'American Hegemony involves the exercise of decisive
influence, but unlike other empires of the past, not of direct
control.
This is no comfort to the regions key players, especially in
light of today's Neocon violence that the world has witnessed
first hand. Mr Brezinski's book is most enlightening and gives
the reader an understanding of many of the strategic objectives
that exist for the US, China and Russia. I invite my readers to
purchase a copy of The Grand Chessboard or find a used
copy and read it, it is well worth it.
China
and Russia are tiring of US presence in the region and will want
to divide up the resources for themselves. Therefore, a united
front will be presented to get the US to leave within the next
two years. The key will be to provide enough incentives to the
other smaller states to tow the line with Moscow and Beijing.
This is probably going to happen but it is not a foregone
conclusion. Watch for moves by the US to send large amounts of
aid to woo these weak and fragmented Former Soviet states. Will
the US be able to win the struggle? Probably not, the Uzbek
government has officially notified the State Department that
they are to leave the Airbase commonly referred to as K2,
located in their nation on which much of US operations in
Afghanistan have been heavily dependent.
Thus
a real and discernible shift in regional power is underway and
the SCO is the latest and most visible example of that shift and
its future implications for the region. America's actions in the
region have had a clear effect on regional governments and that
effect has not been positive. Now the US is in a geopolitical
dilemma and must find a solution to Russian and Chinese pressure
or lose significant influence in the region.
The
US Economy
What
is happening in Central Asia may not seem very relevant at
present to the average working American who is more concerned
about how much his house has appreciated in value over the past
few months. But one day that nice beautiful home is going to be
very, very cold in the winter if more natural gas supplies are
not found. If you think it can't happen, read
this.
New homes sales hit a new record in June to 1.37 million marking
a 4% increase in sales, Obviously the housing bubble has not
burst yet and is not likely to soon. But what is interesting the
trends that are being seen. Medium prices houses are selling
briskly and this is where we have seen the biggest rise in
sales. Larger more expensive homes sales fell. In the DC region,
where a lot of government workers and contractors live the
number of houses for sale has risen by 50% as has the available
inventory. Houses are staying on the market longer. While the
turnaround is still short the trend is showing a noticeable
slowdown. It should be noted however, that housing sales tend to
slow somewhat in summer months. Still, in red hot markets small
signs are beginning to emerge that show that things may be
cooling off, if by just a little. But once again for the DC
region, (where this author lives) moderately prices homes still
sold well and are likely to do so for the foreseeable future.
Another
sign that may mean trouble in the mortgage industry is that
refinancing of existing mortgages is down.
“The
MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications
dropped 11.4 percent to 2,320.3 after rising 2.5 percent the
prior week.” - Reuters
Rising
rates cannot really be blamed because rates are still generally
below 6%. Why the drop off in refinancing is not clear. But many
homeowners may have already refinanced once or twice and see no
reason to do it again, especially after seeing their principle
go up rather than down after living in a house for a few years.
The
risk is real as far as a decline in housing values is concerned
and PMI Insurers have a Risk
List Index of markets across the US, it can be found
here. From that list we see that there are some high risk
markets out there and insurers are taking note, even if some
members of the financial press are less convinced of an
overvalued housing market.
I
do not see housing plummeting soon. I do see a significant
slowdown in price rises over the next year coupled with slightly
declining values in high risk markets over the next 2-3 years. I
do not see interest rates for mortgages moving to exorbitant
rates anytime soon, regardless of what the Fed does. Even if
they do, as long as creative mortgages exist (40 year mortgages
/ ARMS/ interest-only) there will be plenty of buyers who will
make the move and buy homes. This also includes speculators who
have really been a big boost to property values in high risk
regions and until tax laws are written to discourage such
speculation I do not see any kind of a massive housing ‘crash’
that others do. The Fed’s continued monetization of the
economy, while
slowing, shows that general inflationary trends are here to
stay. This includes the real possibility that the Fed is
monetizing part of our Federal deficits as described in June’s
update of this series. However, there is one variable in the
housing market with regards to affordability that may cause the
market to decline faster than the above prognostication
describes.
Jobs.
HP
To Cut 14,000 Jobs In Restructuring
MeadWestco
To Cut 850 Jobs
Computer
Associates To Cut 800 Jobs
Carlson
Companies To Cut 525 Jobs
Lear
To Shed 7,700 Jobs
Symbol
Tech Cutting 700 Jobs
Sara
Lee Apparel To Cut 775 Jobs
Kodak
Shedding 10,000 Jobs
Homeywell
to Cut 2,000 Jobs
Kimberly
Clark (Kleenex) To Cut 6,000 Jobs
Xerox
To Cut 2,600 Jobs
Morgan
Stanley To Cut 1000 Jobs
With
all of these announcements and all of these jobs being lost who
is going to be able to afford that $500,000 house? Even with the
most creative mortgage with negative amortization, it is out of
reach to an unemployed American or one who works in a 21st
century non-union blue collar job. This is the Achilles-heel of
the mortgage bubble, as I see it. Now with the Congress just
passing the CAFTA agreement, 'free trade' will continue to
decimate blue-collar as well as white collar jobs in America.
This will eventually lead to a collapse of the housing market.
This is not going to happen tomorrow. But pressures are already
building in parts of America that have already seen the
blue-collar jobs move overseas. Thus, there will be only one way
to keep the housing bubble going and keep the banks that lent
money irresponsibly from going under in a wave of mortgage
defaults.
Immigration
There
is already a high number of immigrants in the US; legal and
illegal. Many of these immigrants are using more creative ways
of getting into homes, one of these is multi-generational
households where many people live in the house and everyone
helps with the mortgage. This is just one of the ways immigrants
are changing the markets. The other is by enticing wealthy
individuals to buy homes, mortgages or mortgage backings here in
the US. Immigration is the trend of the future. With the borders
disappearing, and free-trade becoming the sacred religion of
politicians the world over, this is what is coming to a town
near you, if it hasn't already. While many will try to fight
against the trend, I do not see it abating without drastic
measures being taken but I'll cover that in this month's 'Random
Thoughts' section.
The
Death of a Livable Wage
I
am often struck by how brazen our leaders are when describing
what is happening to our economy. They clearly know that there
are problems out there and refer to it as 'transformation' or
'adjustment' when talking about what is happening in the US
economy. Our leaders, at the FED, Treasury, Senate, Congress and
Judiciary know exactly what they are doing. They are turning
America into a third world nation by design. This is not being
done haphazardly. They are doing this while they are using
government contracts to well connected establishment firms and
corporations to loot the US treasury of money. Money, I might
add that is not even present. They are borrowing
trillions of dollars to fund pork-barrel projects and are
signing your name to the IOU. As they do this Americans are
being given low wage jobs, losing their health care and pensions
while being told how wonderful the economy is doing. The economy
is performing great if you are Halliburton,
ExxonMobil, or a myriad of other well connected corporations,
law firms and banks. Let us note here as well that these
companies are using foreign labor to do much of their work, once
again leaving Americans out in the cold. This is not a way to
build an economy, but it is an excellent way to destroy one
and that is exactly what our leaders are doing to the American
worker. The strategies to deal with this growing problem of the
American workers has led to one the worst Labor
Union splits in US history.
The
AFL-CIO, according to some, really is no longer representing the
interests of many of America's union members. Some of their
leaders belonged to the corporate club of elitists that used to
hide behind semi-secrecy and now have 'come out of the closet',
so to speak. That group being being the Council On Foreign
Relations. In fact the current President
of the AFL-CIO
has spoken at
the CFR and while eloquently stating the perils of globalization
has also, in they eyes of some, lost the battle in his strategy
to make the labor movement more relevant in American politics.
My own view is that earlier, in the late 80's and early 90's,
its leadership failed to recognize the threat globalization was
to play and thus failed to organize properly against it.
Additionally, organized labor may have had leaders that were
covertly working against the interest of the workers they were
charged with protecting by cozying up to the banks and
corporations that had a vested interest in weakening the labor
movement. But
that is just my humble, but studied opinion. But let it be noted
that past leaders of the AFL-CIO were
members of the CFR. Thus Corporate America has won every major
battle today in when it comes to the American worker. The result
has been a boom to the rich and powerful and the loss of
millions of jobs for working Americans as well as health care
and pensions.
Today,
there is need to pay pensions, over the past 30 years pension
fund participation is down about 75%. No need to pay health care
to many workers... and God help you if you have to pay for it
yourself. Half of a minimum wage worker's paycheck will go to
health insurance if he has a family. What does this mean? It
means 30 million Americans without health care and a medical
establishment that is desperately trying to force these already
poor Americans to go to a doctor and pay for a prescription in
order to get a bottle of Vitamin C. The EU
is on course to do this now
and it will soon
follow in the US.
These turns of events are truly scary because Americans seem to
be consistently denied affordable health care. It is almost as
though someone has decided that if we cannot kill the poor with
bullets and gas chambers they'll make sure they get sick and die
just blocks from a multi-million dollar hospital. Perhaps that
is what is meant by a 'war on poverty'. This all happening right
in front of American's eyes. It is not being done is a corner,
anyone with at least half a brain can see it but
that's perhaps only one-tenth of the population. Can anyone say
anti-depressants, ecstasy, alcohol, pot, cocaine and
meth-amphetamines? That is why there is no outcry, and won't be.
The nation is literally too drugged up to notice.
The Dollar
The
simple fact is that the dollar has not declined over the past
few months because Europe is in a crisis. This has led to a
great deal concern as to the direction the EU and the Euro are
heading in the months and years ahead. This uncertainty, coupled
with a rather dismal European jobs picture and terror has cooled
sentiment on the entire EU concept for the time being. Indeed
recent comments by the Italian Prime Minister Silvio are very
telling, Berlusconi called Europe
a 'Disaster' and a 'Ripoff'. He blamed the Euro on Italy's
present recession and 'choking exports'. How much of this talk
is electioneering and how much is a real desire to eventually
move Italy outside of the EU zone remains to be seen. Yet the
very fact that a politician like Berlusconi believes that
anti-EU statements are viewed as popular shows how much of a
shift public sentiment is moving against the EU in some
quarters. Thus, I look for the dollar to depreciate but not
right away. There is nowhere for large investors to go. Perhaps
that in the future a group of nations, perhaps in the middle
east will decide to create a gold based currency to trade with.
Frankly there would never be a better time than now. With US
troops defeated in Iraq, a military response to such a move many
not be immediate or very effective. Sooner or later, I expect
the international trading system to break down as the dollar
begins an inevitable free-fall in the not too distant future.
Some other medium of exchange will eventually come into being.
Until the French rejected the EU constitution conventional
wisdom would have said the Euro would eventually replace the
dollar. That is unlikely now. But Europe's elite have no one but
themselves to blame. While certainly the people were concerned
that their so called 'welfare-state'
would be destroyed, it was the other issues as well that have
caused so much dissent as well that caused the constitution
rejecting nations to vote against it
The
Islamicization of their communities
Rampant
immigration and the destruction of their unique cultures
Manufacturing
jobs going away.
The
bureaucrats that won't allow ordinary people to get high dose
vitamins and are beginning to allow GM foods into the Eurozone
and a myriad of other smaller lesser known annoyances that
everyday people must put up with since the Eurocrats began to
take power.
It
is usually not the 'one big thing' that caused people to vote
against something this important but is the thousand little
things that they can no longer do that disgusts them. Sadly in
America, our politicians are not accountable to the electorate
anymore with vote-fraud machines going up in most swing states.
The people are being given no recourse to having their markets
ruined by the corporations. At least the the Europeans got to
vote on it.
'Twin Parasites' Or 'Twin Deficits'
While
many pundits correctly and most articulately discuss America's
twin deficit problem, I see the twin deficits, not exclusively,
but increasingly a result of what I shall call the 'Twin
Parasites' of the Defense-Medical wealth transfer economy.
What do I mean by that? These are the two sectors that are
sucking the life blood out of the US economy. Whenever the issue
of our deficits comes up no pundit in the financial press or
even in the alternative financial press relates the fact that
defense spending in the US is set to surpass all of the rest of
the world combined next year. How can this not be
relevant to our twin deficits? How can you spend nearly $700
billion on
a war based on false pretenses and have no one cry economic
foul? Granted, some of it is self-censorship and not wanting to
sound un-patriotic while our troops are dying in Iraq. I can
accept that up to a point, but the tragedy is that defense
spending alone, if reigned in, would solve much much of current
account deficit problems. How can you have contractors making
billions in Iraq for services never rendered and no one in the
financial press write about it with any depth? Billions upon
billions are being wasted while Greenspan and the Fed warn of
fiscal tsunami's ahead. The defense department and its
contractors are the primary reason the nation is in debt to the
tune of some 7-11
trillion dollars.
Source:
2004
Financial Report Of the US Government – Treasury
Department (page 11)
While
the President speaks about how 'Social Security is bankrupting
the nation', the reality is that his supporters want to shift
the money from Social Security into yet more non-performing
contracts at the DOD; missile systems that will never be
deployed, jet fighters what will never go into battle, computer
systems that will never go online, or won't work if they do.
This is the real problem in the American economy.
Marshall Auerback at the Prudent
Bear Fund has an excellent article entitled “It
Costs a lot to fight a War on Terror”,
I urge you to click over and read it. The defense establishment
is milking this cow (US economy) for all she's got and she has
very little milk left to be drawn. Do you want to fix America's
twin deficit problems? Significantly reduce defense spending and
cut out the fraud waste and abuse. This is where the a sizable
portion of defense dollars are going. In essence, the cash is
going from the treasury into the pockets of the politically
connected. Why does this continue? Because some of those who are
charged with providing our troops with these weapons systems are
not interested in National Security. No, they are far more
interested in their own personal financial security. That is why
we have troops that go into battle with no armor on their
vehicles, trucks that are certified as not fit for duty as
primary vehicles in Iraq. They over-heat within a few miles of
driving and then the logistical troops become a target for
insurgents as they radio for help to be 'rescued' by yet
another poorly maintained vehicle. We have hi-tech
equipment that simply does not function on the battlefield.
These are just some of the important reasons that we are losing
the war; fraud waste and abuse in the DOD procurement system.
Let me tell you this, the DOD is run so poorly that if this
nations enemies had control of it they could hardly do more harm
to the nation as a whole than some of folks who run it now. We
have essentially lost a war that should never have been fought
in the first place because our leadership refused to listen to
anyone that did not agree with their own predetermined
conclusions. Don't expect our leaders to fix these problems. Ask
yourself to which nation millions of American jobs have already
gone and which nation is already making parts for defense
contractors. This is all being done with our leaders
invaluable help. So many of our elite have duped the
nation into believing that they are patriotic Americans. They
are telling you to wave a flag and be happy while you get paid
less and work more while, at the same time, they get hefty
monetary stipends from companies that get no bid contracts that
they once managed and directed! Their job is to tell you how it
is your patriotic duty to sit by and watch them rob America
blind and then tell you that only 'unpatriotic' Americans would
expose what they are doing. This is the world of 'right-speak'.
He who does not speak for the political right is not an American
and is given little or no time in the halls of power. They want
the soldiers to die for a lie and attack those who expose the
fraud, financial and political, of America's war.
The
other part of the Twin Parasites of the American economy
is the medical establishment. Now let me say this now before I
get a flurry of hate mail, not all that the medical
establishment does is bad. Many, many lives have been saved by
hard working and often overworked doctors and medical
professionals This is not a slam against their tireless efforts
to treat people and save lives. The problems in the medical
profession lies in the Insurance and Drug industries that have
sprung up around the profession and driven up the cost of
medicine far beyond what a large and growing number of Americans
can afford. This is one of the main reasons that companies like
Ford and GM are in such trouble now. Health care costs. But
herein lies the rub, the debate is never framed in such a way as
to blame the medical industry. It is framed in a way as to
suggest that the labor unions are asking too much in asking the
company to foot the insurance bill, as they have been doing for
decades, when costs were reasonable. This is happening in
company after company, they simply cannot afford to pay the
health care benefits in America and move their operations
overseas. Moreover, the medical industry is doing its level best
to keep anyone from trying any alternative health care that they
cannot control, regulate or at least approve of.
The
price of health
care climbed 12.4% between 2002 and 2003 and employers spent
$331 billion of heath care costs.
Hear me dear readers, even
the drug company execs are talking about the prices
openly. This is
no longer 'crackpot' conspiracy talk. These problems are real
and these factors are one of the primary reason the American
worker is losing his competitiveness in the globalized economy.
I will not bore you with charts and graphs. If you live in
America and have health care you already know how much it costs
you. If you do not have health care, you know why you don't have
it. The medical profession, the drug companies in particular are
making a great deal of money and some of the drugs they sell
have been shown to be unsafe, even after FDA approval! Suffice
it to say that there are some real problems in American medicine
and it is one of the key problems that underlie our twin
deficits. If workers do not produce here in the US and the
ability to produce those goods is moved overseas, we must then
import those goods from a foreign country, this adds to our
trade deficit. A perfect example is what has happened to our
textile industry.
The
'twin parasites' are as real as the twin deficits and if you
have not heard these problems expressed in these terms before, I
ask you to take a look at the number of drug ads during
commercials breaks on TV and you will have your answer.
Broadcasters depend on advertising. Consequently, they are not
about to expose the hand that feeds them or explain to their
audiences what these advertisers are doing to the American
worker. And keep this salient fact in mind, these two industries
are heavily dependent on taxes and government regulation to
exist and rake in the kinds of profits that they do now. These
are problems that can only be solved in the legislature.
Other news
Random Thoughts In A Post Crash World
Last
week while listing to some Internet/shortwave radio stations and
reading some usually rather tame newsgroups and web postings I
have noticed how often the subject of civil war and revolution
came up in the conversations. I heard it when CAFTA was passed
and when the Supreme Court ruled that local governments can
seize a persons property and give to another private corporation
for private profit. I heard it when people started asking some
pointed questions about the London
Bombing.
At
half past nine this morning we were actually running an exercise
for a company of over a thousand people in London based on
simultaneous bombs going off precisely at the railway stations
where it happened this morning, so I still have the hairs on the
back of my neck standing up right now.
HOST:
To get this quite straight, you were running an exercise to see
how you would cope with this and it happened while you were
running the exercise?
POWER:
Precisely, and it was about half past nine this morning, we
planned this for a company and for obvious reasons I don't want
to reveal their name but they're listening and they'll know it.
And we had a room full of crisis managers for the first time
they'd met and so within five minutes we made a pretty rapid
decision that this is the real one and so we went through the
correct drills of activating crisis management procedures to
jump from slow time to quick time thinking and so on. - BBC
Radio Interview
I
heard it when people talk about being lied to in going to war
and in the attempt to rob Social Security. I am hearing this
kind of dangerous talk more and more and no longer on
just what I have come to call 'hate-radio'. Mothers and fathers,
old and young are really starting to get angry. There appears to
be a rising anger in a lot of folks and while most of it is
based on ignorance and only getting half the story, much of it
is informed and increasing directed at the Federal Government
and the big multi-national corporations. The very entities that
people are beginning to realize, are robbing them blind. Now get
this straight now before you write me any hate mail or well
intentioned 'warning mail', I abhor violence. Anyone who
has known me and what I have been through knows I detest it and
will not
engage in it. But that is just me, thousands, probably millions
of other Americans are not bound by my own personal and
religious restraints. Thus, the specter of the possibility of
the breakdown of civil order or even yes, civil war must be
looked at in a post crash world.
Many
will not cover this possibility out of fear. Fear of what people
will say or what the government might do. That kind of cringing
cowardice is not in my nature and those who are controlled by
that kind of cowardice are frankly, beneath contempt. Thus, I
will talk about these things for a moment despite what many of
you may feel about this subject, because, it is my view that in
a post crash world the possibility of the break down of civil
order and civil war are real... very real.
Americans
have forgotten how this nation was formed. It was formed in a
revolt. Initially against a rather innocuous, by today's
standards, tax. But that tax lead to a revolt. People, try to
understand this, revolts happen. They have happened twice
in American history. They are happening now all over the world.
This is the way of things. When a man cannot feed his family, is
politically repressed, tortured and no longer has a vote in how
his country is run, violence is guaranteed.
Those
who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent
revolution
inevitable - JFK
Folks,
I see a civil war coming in America in a post crash world, but I
do not see the people winning the war. I see the Federal
Government using every method available to keep itself in power
against the will of the majority of people including the use of
tactics that are abhorrent to any civilized person. When the
Bible talks about the end-time government being a 'Beast', that
is exactly how I see the behavior of those who are in power when
that power is threatened, 'bestial'. At the Bastille in France
during the revolution they used torture to repress the poor. The
peasants eventually stormed the Bastille and tore it down BRICK
BY BRICK, because they had no demolition techniques in those
days. Its destruction was a potent symbol against unbridled
power. The monarch in those
days could imprison and torture without trial any peasant in
pre-revolutionary France. Today, in the so-called 'land
of the free', we also imprison and torture people without trial,
something that was unheard of just a few short years ago. This
is a key lesson of history so understand this, if nothing else
in this section of this months update: Repression
is absolutely necessary when you remove democratic input.
This
is why I think the vote fraud issue is so pivotal today. So let
me be totally honest with you. I do not think George Bush won
either of the last two elections. I think he lost the first one
and while he did win the popular vote in the second, he lost the
electoral vote in the second and only won it by not allowing
predominantly black counties to vote in Ohio (carefully
timed power outages were noted in these areas [Part
II]) and by using Jim
Crow provisional ballots that were not counted and of course
the tried and true, vote
fraud machines. I firmly believe that we have been living
under a unelected regime for the past 5 years. I do not believe
the Americans elect their Presidents anymore nor will they ever
again. There is a political machine that anoints them and tells
the people how they voted after the vote fraud machines have
been pre-programmed for the desired result in key swing
counties. Now uninformed people call these things
'conspiracy theory' as though nothing like this could possibly
happen in America, now or ever. If you really believe that, you
have not been paying attention nor are you familiar with
American history. There was a massive CONSPIRACY for nearly two
centuries to keep blacks from voting in America and only
in the late 20th century have they been granted he
legal right to do so. Let us also note that a Civil
War was a key part of the train of events that
eventually brought about the voting rights act. People were
threatened, beat up and murdered for trying to organize Blacks
to vote. Yesterday and today it's not just Blacks that are
having their right to vote denied, now it is whites who are not
being allowed to vote. Oh, they can to go to the polls and pull
the lever, but the votes were counted a week before election day
by a computer program no one is allowed to question. It is not
important that we actually have
a democracy, in the eyes of our elite, it is
important that people
believe that they have a democracy. That is
why they will continue to go through the farce of elections.
Drugged up and Dumbed Down.
The
simple fact is that Americans are too ill-informed to remain
free and that is why I see such a dark picture ahead.
"If
a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of
civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."-
Thomas Jefferson
This
is why I see a civil war or massive civil disobedience coming.
If you take away the democratic right of people to choose their
leaders and consistently move the nation in a direction that the
people do not want, a civil war is as certain as tomorrow's
sunrise. It may take a while, but it comes sooner or later.
However, it is important to note that the American experience is
a little different in that Americans are extremely susceptible
to corporate propaganda, far more than probably any other group
of people in the world. They believe their news organizations
and the slick PR machine that masquerades as news on TV. It will
be easy to get a large segments (though probably not a majority)
of the population to go along with whatever propaganda line the
government/corporations (GOV/CORP) put out. But that will only
last as long as there is food on the tables, gas to put in cars
and heat in homes. Will GOV/CORP be able to turn one set of
victims anger against another set of victims (divide and rule)?
My estimation is that yes, they will and this is what they will
eventually do. They will find a 'victim' and demonize them. The
victim may be Muslims, Blacks, Jews, Mexicans or Christians, but
they will find one and demonize them in the press and government
pronouncements (terrorist alerts, leaked government reports
describing the threat 'such and such' a group poses) thus
turning the peoples anger away from the real cause of our coming
fiscal, social and political problems, GOV/CORP, towards a
hapless victim.
_____
Fictitious
news report with an attractive blond reporter standing on the
White House lawn.
“Today
in a leaked report that many in the administration felt was too
inflammatory to release, the FBI said that a large group of
radical (insert victim race or group)
have a nationwide network of terrorist cells and that there is
planning underway for terrorist attacks against key government
installations.”
'Beth,
this tracks with our other sources at the CIA which says that
international terrorist organizations are now using disaffected
(insert victim race or group) to
carry out attacks on US soil.' Why have we not heard more about
this?
Well
Jim, you are obviously talking about the recent National
Intelligence Estimate that has not been released to the public
but has been made available to certain Republican leaders in the
Congress, according to unnamed administration officials, the
administration does not want to cause any racial tensions and
were concerned with what civil rights activists would say.”
- Mendacious News Network (all
lies, all the time)
____
After
that story the news-propagandist would run a sex-crime or
violent-crime story with that very same ethnic group that
was targeted in the Government leak as the perpetrator of the
crime. A picture would be shown and a heart-rending story about
how much the victim suffered at the hands of the person would be
shown. (This is called reinforcement and association). This
would be done over several weeks on the major networks, leaked
reports, carefully choosing of news reported just before and
right after the leaked story to incite hatred, and you have
your victim. It does not matter if the leak was true or if
the reports were based on anything but the whim of someone
inside the administration. Listen, if they can create false
intelligence to start a war, they can surely crate a false
terrorist threat in the US to incite hatred. The key is create a
focus for the peoples anger to channel it away from the real
cause and perpetrators of the economic crash.
I
know this is a dark picture. I know this is not what any one
wants to hear but I will tell you now of all the scenarios of a
post crash world that I see this is the most likely, in my
estimation, if a crash is sharp, sudden and irreversible.
What am I personally doing to prepare myself? I know some of you
will ask. I will not tell you but I will provide
some links for your amusement.
Link
1
Link
2
Link
3
Let
it be noted here that I am not advocating violence of any sort.
I don't like it, and I think that in America, the people would,
lose quickly and decisively. They are simply too stupid,
disorganized and lazy to have a positive effect if they tried to
use it to change things. I love peace and strive to live at
peace will all men at all times. Thus, to those who will
eventually take up arms, I can only say this; It is a
mistake. However pure your motives are now, violence
will change them from positive political action to revenge and
despotism. Remember Robespierre,
he started out nobly enough and was called the 'incorruptible'.
In fact, he was even an opponent of capital punishment. But
later, he used the guillotine without reserve. Violence is a
road many will travel on to bring about change. I cannot and
will not partake of it. Nor can I support those that do,
even if they have the highest of motivations at the beginning.
On one level I may sympathize with the plight of those who are
oppressed, yet on another level, I know that the road of
violence will take me to a place I do not want to go.
The Leaders They Deserve
Finally
as far as Americans in general are concerned, I must be very
honest with you, they deserve the leaders they have. You
see my perspective of America is different than most who live in
its borders because I lived 10 consecutive years of my adult
life outside of its borders. I know when we are told how free we
are, it is a lie,
when we are told how we have the best health care on earth, it
is a lie, when we are told how we are the most envied nation
on earth, it is a lie. We are not talking about the
American people being hapless victims of their government here,
we're are talking about a nation of people who have watched
their nation over the past 50 years deny the freedoms they enjoy
to others around the world, through economic and military
repression. From Africa to South and Central America to Asia,
the US has not been the good guy, despite what you hear on TV.
The American people did nothing about our repressive policies as
we assassinated democratically elected leaders, instigated
coups, funded death squads, rigged elections, and dropped
chemical weapons on people and crops, sent people to foreign
nations to be tortured and provided intelligence information to
repressive governments around the world so that people who stood
up for the poor could be 'disappeared'. We have sold chemical
and biological weapons to people like Saddam Hussein and then
had the audacity to accuse him of possessing them! No. The
people sat back, popped open a beer and watched the tube while
we did all of this evil. Now the chickens are coming home to
roost. So for the record let me say this now, in my estimation,
the current administration, as bad as it is, is still far too
good for the vast majority of people who call themselves
American.
I
simply cannot shed any tears and certainly won't shed any blood
for the American people or anyone else for that matter. My
soldiering days are over for good. Americans have chosen their
path and their reward is dead ahead.
Thanks
all of you for stopping by Watson's Web!
By
Mark S. Watson
By,
Mark
S. Watson
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